SCOPE Spatial Crude Oil Price Equilibrium
Pre-computed Scenarios
Select a scenario to view its impact on global oil markets. The single-strait scenarios run 60 days (strait closes on day 10, reopens on day 40); the 2026 scenario runs a 243-day calendar timeline (Hormuz closed Feb 28–Jun 17, then from Jul 21 both Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb closed simultaneously through Sep 1).
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Scenario Parameters
Supply elasticity: 0.15
Ramp-up: 0.5%/day
Ramp-down: 20%/day
Spare capacity: 5%
Russia exclusion: 30%
Demand elasticity: -0.15
Commercial storage: 3 days
SPR: IEA base case
Custom Scenario
Want to run your own scenario with custom parameters? Switch to the Custom tab above.
Simulation
days
Supply
%/day
%/day
%
Supply Disruption
No disruptions defined
Demand
days
Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Release
% of storage
After
days from first shock
Over
days
Speculative News Headlines
?Use this only for speculative events — threats, rumours, statements, market psychology — that should move price via the expectations channel without changing physical supply or demand. For real disruptions (strait closures, pipeline outages, production cuts) use the dedicated controls above so the LP solves a true equilibrium.
No headlines added
Day 0
Naval Blockades
Pipeline Outages
No outages defined
Select a scenario or run a custom simulation to see results here.
Avg Price
—$/bbl
Total Supply
—Mb/d
Throughput
—Mb/d
Price ($/bbl)
Supply Delivered (Mb/d)
Throughput (Mb/d)
Click a band in the chart to drill into that country's companies.
Money Flow ($M/day)
Timeline
Day 1
Download Figure
Download a publication-quality PNG with the global map, price/supply timeline, and chokepoint infographic.
BREAKING NEWS
Basemap
Overlays
Refinery
Delivered Price ($/bbl)
Storage (%)
Commercial Storage (days)
Throughput (kb/d)
Inflows
Oil Field
Production (kb/d)
Extraction Cost ($/bbl)
Legend
Oil field (cost)
Refinery (capacity)
Port
Pipeline
Shipping lane
Active flow
Tanker
Selected tanker
Strait
Blocked strait
Fields: -
Refineries: -
Ports: -
Supply: - Mb/d
Demand: - Mb/d